Lay The Draw

Since I started looking at trading football more frequently, I've primarily been using that old favourite, Lay The Draw. Sometimes, I use 0-0 cover for insurance, sometimes, I don't bother. In all cases, I've been getting out if the odds for the draw have dropped to a point where my losses would be half of the original liability.

This evening's game between Derby and Coventry was a perfect example.

With only 4 mins on the clock, Coventry's goal put me in a spot of bother. I'd covered the 0-0 as insurance, so that bet was lost, and the draw odds barely moved. I could have scratched the draw there and then and taken the 0-0 loss on the chin. However, I decided to old on a bit.

With Derby equalising early in the second half, the draw odds shot in and it wasn't long before they reached my stop loss point. Of course, as is the way of these things, Derby scored the winner as soon as I had traded out.

I have to say I have had no luck with this strategy whatsoever. Indeed, I have yet to have a profitable trade using Lay The Draw. To such an extent that I think it is time to lay this to bed. At least, laying before kick off. Laying at half time, or a little into the second half when the odds are much less may be a better option.

For the moment, I'm going to leave it and look at something else as that strategy simply isn't working for me.

The shocking run I've been on since the start of the winter horse racing continues without any sign of letting up. It is not just the horse trading that is suffering. Just looking at this month, I'm £10 down on the horses and £28 down on the football. Only the dogs are showing a tiny profit, though they've tried their best to be in the red as well.

The spell I had in mid-October is increasingly looking like a flash in the pan. I can only take solace from the fact that more experience and competent traders also appear to have it tough at this time of the year. It doesn't make it any less frustrating mind you.

3 comments:

Drifter said...

Hi Alistair

I have never got the hang of laying the draw. I am not sure what the prices were in the game last night but I did read once that if the home team are trading at around 2 then the strategy could be profitable. I think with certain restrictions it could work. However I don't think I have the time to work them out.

Drifter

Anonymous said...

Hi, 1/2 time markets have fast depreciation rate, after 1/2 time go back with match markets.
http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/
(main console) gives comprehensive stats for 1/2 time.
Note that sometimes the Betfair price appears to be out of alignment with stats so can back/lay accordingly. Smokey

Bager said...

Hi Alistair.

Just a good advice. Do not use lay the draw strategy on football. It is a long time loser. The only market where it could maybe be usefull is trading german football. The goal rate is much higher and odds on 0-0 is alot higher.
But my advice is to leave it alone.

Best regards
Hans Bager