Confidence Out The Window

After another shocker, I've stopped early before I throw any more good money after the bad.

I've lost over £30 on the nags today thanks to some of the worst trading I have ever done. Time and time again I was entering the market at the tail end of a move. As a result, it was reversing on me within seconds and not coming back. I was frequently forced to take 5+ tick losses as I waited for the market to come back but didn't.

I've no idea what has happened to my trading. Last week, as I documented in earlier posts, I was becoming increasingly comfortable trading the horse win markets. Now, I feel I'm plunging head long into an ever deepening crisis of confidence.

It might not be so bad if I could depend on the, usually, reliable greyhound markets. However, I've been all over the place with them as well in recent times. This is only exasperating the problem where I now find myself nearly £100 down for the month.

My head is swimming at the moment while it searches for some sort of understanding of the horse markets, but continues to drown in the seemingly random nature of it all. As I said in the chat room today, I'm beginning to think I might as well roll dice to decide what horse, and type of trade I should do. It seems to me that it can't be any more useless than I am at the moment.


Mark Iverson said...

Hi Alistair,

For what it's worth, initially I found it very difficult to maintain my discipline after stopping posting my p&l on my blog. It really helped me maintain focus and fear losses - perhaps the same is happening with you?

All the best,


Alistair said...

Could well be Mark. The pressure of presenting a positive return each month may well have been a hidden incentive.

I'm also wondering if it is broadband related. I've had good speeds after changing my ISP, but on Monday morning, the halved after my router disconnected. This happened while the new loft insulation was being fitted. I wonder of the Neanderthals who were doing the installation disturbed the cabling somehow.

ricardo said...

The horses are a nightmare. My trading has gone through three stages so far:

1. Losing on the horses.

2. Losing on the horses but winning on the football.

3. Winning on the football.

I know where I'll be from now on.


Vital Satistix said...

I would stay stick with it but with very low stakes. This is what I am doing. I had about 7 simple rules implemented in a Bot which killed in back testing and live in December. It about broke even in January and February but has been performing very poorly in March. The reason I stay stick with it is when the markets change again you will be ready and waiting