Time To Get Serious

Having spent the past two months paper trialling a horse lay system which has accumulated over 200 paper points in the process, I thought it was about time that I started taking it seriously. With a return like that, I'd be foolish to ignore it.

With my trading hitting a brick wall and bouncing backwards this month, I've changed tack and cut the trading both in terms of amount of races I get involved in as well as stake sizes used. Instead, I'm concentrating on those races where the lay system has identified picks and restricted any trading to those races where there are none.

Two days in to the experiment, I'm 13.5 points up and finally put an end to that losing run I was on, which was going into it's 8th day before today's racing.

Two days of successful picks does not a system make, but based on the trial results, it is looking good. There's no real reason why it wouldn't be successful long term as the selection process is exactly the same and with a sample size of over 1000 potential picks, I have no reason to assume otherwise.

I see two potential areas where it might fall over:

Firstly, with the summer quickly ending and with it the summer racing, there's a question mark over how the selection process will survive the transition into the winter racing program. When the time comes, I'll cut back a little on the staking, if not take a break altogether in order to monitor the system during the change over period.

Secondly, and more importantly, is the emotional discipline required. This is a straight laying system. No trading out. There will be losing runs. How I handle them will determine if this particular venture succeeds or fails. Historically, I haven't been good at handling losing runs, but that was before I turned to trading. My discipline, and most importantly, my money management is a heck of a lot better than it was then. Time will tell.

Early days yet so I'll be keeping the stakes down to £5 for the moment with a view to reassessing progress after a month. Fingers crossed.


PhilipH said...

Straight laying? No trading? This is a major change Ali. I do hope it pans out well of course, but when I tried laying, following 'advice' from a friend who was supposed to know a lot about it, I found it nerve-wracking at times.

Still, you presumably will not spend so much time at the computer, so that's a gain!

Alistair said...

It's a shock to the system isn't Phil?

I've been working on something else for a while and spent many extra hours collecting and analysing the data and this jumped out at me. Given the paper profit, I feel I need to pursue it, come what may.

JS said...

Good luck Alistair :)

Didd said...

Big change Alistair, you've been trading for so long. I wish you all the best with the new bets.

Alistair said...

Thanks for the comments chaps.

Don't get me wrong though. I'll still be trading. That's a skill that needs constant practice and is easily forgotten. This, assuming it works, is just another weapon in the arsenal.

There's more than one way to skin a cat on Betfair as they say.

The Wagerer said...

Summer ending?! It's July 25. Are you one of those people who burn easily, by any chance?

Alistair said...

LOL! You forget Wagerer, I'm Scottish and up here the nights are fair drawing in!

We'll have to put our central heating on soon.