You've Got to Laugh

Have you ever had one of those days when nothing goes to plan? Happens to me all the time. Never more so than in the world of gambling.

My trading has been very poor of late so yesterday I took the opportunity to invest in a a couple of strategies that I'd been paper trialling. The first was a back/lay plan were I'd look for 3 ticks and take them in play if necessary. The second was a Dutching plan that has consistently shown around 40% ROI on paper since I started it.

The 3 tick back/lay plan started off very well yesterday afternoon but the inevitable happened when one selection didn't get matched and wiped the profit that had been built up (I had no intention of using stop losses in-running). As a result, that particular plan returned a small loss.

That is the problem of course. Three ticks isn't enough to build up enough profit to cover the hit when it comes. But then, looking for more ticks means a lower hit rate. Where the optimum point is is the question.

As for the Dutching plan! That's been looking good, but yesterday was a disaster. The selection process that has worked so well on paper turned and bit me on the rear with only 1 of the 13 races I got involved in actually finding a winner. Sod's Law coupled with a bout of seconditis saw me lose over £50.

Paradoxically, I had the best return from trading I've had for a while, but thanks to the above, I still wound up in the red.

Sod's Law struck earlier in the month when, as mentioned in my June Summary post, I started investing in another strategy that had shown significant profit on paper.

This selection process finds possible pre-race and in-running lays and from 25th May to the end of June had been showing a profit in the order of 120pts. Low and behold, I start putting money on them and I immediately hit a run of race winning picks. This is where my mental strength is severely tested and I'm reminded of why I turned to trading in the first place.

In those days, even the smallest losing run would cause serious doubt and lack of confidence and I'd go off on tilt. Thanks to my trading, I'm a lot more disciplined now, but for someone like me who has struggled against self-doubt all his life, it can be an uphill battle at times. With my confidence already a bit low this month due to my poor trading, I immediately stopped the plan though I carried on recording the picks on paper.

Two weeks later, the running total is now sitting just short of 200pts.

Like I said, you've got to laugh.


Harri said...

Hi the 3 tick back/lay plan needs markets with a large amount of money to be profitable. When the English leagues are started the problem with selections running out of cash is history. Have patience and wait for one more month and try the 3 tick plan again. I really like your blog it is interesting to read how other trader thinks. Keep up you good work, and good luck.


Alistair said...

Very true Harri. Just a little experiment for small amounts. As you say, it may be better suited to footy.

Thanks for the comment.