August 2010 Summary

Well, it's that time again. Time for me to try and summarise another dismal month for me. My second losing month in a row and my third this year, indeed, my third since I started in Feb 2008.

August has been a frustrating month resulting in my biggest monthly loss since I started. Much of that loss was due to the lay system which started on a prolonged losing run as soon as I started putting my hard earned cash on it. Par for the course really. I stopped midway through the month only to see the system pick up in the last 10 days.

You just couldn't write the script for it.

The lay system, on paper anyway if not my pocket, finished the month just 1.75 points down. Given that it was down over 62 points in the first two weeks, I've got to treat this as something of a success. Still, it is clearly a failure compared to the two months that went before it.

Since I started this on the 25th May, the system has racked up paper profits to the tune of 234 points so despite the obvious setback that this month has served up, it is still very much worth continuing the monitoring process. As the flat season is drawing to a close, I've no idea how the system will perform during the winter race season so I'll be keeping my wallet tightly shut for now.

As for my horse trading, well, it continues to be erratic. Another losing month as far as this aspect of my life on Betfair is concerned. I recently revealed my concern on the future viability of my continuing involvement in trading the horse markets. The intervening week has done little to alleviate those concerns.

The following graph illustrates my performance today, and is pretty typical of my daily life trying to trade the horse win markets. All I can say is, I'm consistent in my inconsistency. I can and do put in some decent trades, but the signals that lead me to those profits can be the same from one race to the next yet the market will turn against me big time.

The seemingly random nature of my reading of the markets is causing me no end of frustration. I am frequently misreading the markets and getting caught by huge reversals that come completely out of the blue - or so it seems to me. If there is any indication that these sudden, large and quick shifts in the market are about to happen, then I am incapable of reading them.

I'm not losing huge amounts playing the win markets - only £38 this month though July was significantly worse than that - but I'm not winning much either. I cannot help feel that I'm simply wasting my time. There's nothing really clicking for me; no epiphany; no eureka moment.

I have often likened my horse trading to the way I play golf - very badly. However, no matter how badly the round is going, out of the 90 odd strokes I'd take as I hack my way round the course, there'd always be one great shot that made me keep coming back for more. My trading is like that. One great trade, completely spoiled by the dross all around it.

I gave up playing golf when I got divorced. Perhaps I need to divorce myself from the horse win markets as well. They certainly aren't working for me, that's for sure.

There's one good thing with the onset of the darker nights. It will free up time to study the football markets. The trouble is, I'm not sure at this moment in time if I'll still be trading. Time for a break I think and recharge the batteries. Who knows what lies around the corner.


KO'D said...

Hey I know what you mean about the big traders/punters out there wacking on loads of money dragging the odds up/down. Got caught in two today myself.
I've personally noticed that the evening trips aren't as effected by these big traders and this is the time where i am seeing most of my profit, as it is easier (not easy) to read.
Wish i had £10,000 as my trading bank the so and so's.
Anyway just thought i would leave a comment, loving a good read of your blog. Don't quit it, stick at it, learn from your mistakes and be selective about which races you trade in perhaps.


mosaic said...

very brave writing

i try to find a way too, to make money with Betfair, and i recently i read a book on trading the Stock Market Exchanges which i suggest you to read before deciding to continue

the book is called "trading in the zone" and it covers the psycological aspects of trading(or gambling, cause the two of them have many similarities)

PhilipH said...

Whatever you do Ali, steer clear of cricket! In fact, given the current state of affairs in your trading, steer clear of it all for a few weeks.