A Dramatic Recovery

Unlike my trading, the lay system has seen a dramatic recovery over the past week returning the P&L back into positive figures and giving, as I type, the highest value since it started. Of course, this was bound to happen since I stopped putting money on it. :)

Over 50pts have been earned over the past seven days and is much more like the sort of performance I'd seen in May-July. The question is, why the deep and prolonged dip in it's fortunes over the past 3-4 weeks? Just a natural statistical blip that one might expect in any system, or something more interesting?

It may well be a combination of both, but it is worth noting that in recent weeks we have had a number of major meetings, all of which went poorly for the system. As a chat room regular pointed out, perhaps the runners that the system will naturally find, spend all summer being prepared just for those very meetings towards the tail end of the season. Consequently, the system can expect to find more winning horses during that period.

As the summer racing draws slowly to its conclusion and the winter jump season picks up, can I expect to see a similar thing happening next spring when Aintree and the like come along? It will be interesting to find out. Clearly, it is still very worthwhile monitoring the selections in the meantime.

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