Time For A Holiday?

Another terrible day today with 5 out of 10 laid horses winning their race. This lay system, that showed so much promise in May-July, is turning into a major disappointment.

Since I started putting money on this on the 20th July, I now find myself over 15pts down. More worryingly, this month has seen a drop of 34.20pts after only two weeks. Although I promised myself I'd give it until the end of August, I have to seriously question the wisdom of that decision. That's a lot of points to lose in such a short space of time and my problem is, there's is no sign of a let up.

My concern is, given that the selection process is based on statistical form (or lack of it) data, that as the summer racing season has progressed, the data in May-July led to a selection process that is no longer valid as the main protagonists have come into consistent form.

For example, since I started monitoring these results, there has been a total of 524 qualifying selections, with 156 of those picks winning their race. That's 29.8% or a daily average of 2.17.

From the start on the 25th May up to the 20th July when I started putting money on them, there were 355 selections resulting in 98 winners over the 57 day period. That's 27.6% and a daily average of 1.72.

Compare that to the 25 days I've been putting cash on them and updating the running total on this blog. 58 out of 169 qualifying picks have won their race. That's 34.3% and a daily average of 2.32.

Given the loss for the first two weeks of August as mentioned above, you won't be surprised to learn these figures are even worse for that period. For those that are interested, 40.2% and a daily average of 2.50.

Clearly the performance over the past three weeks or so has been terrible. Is that simply a natural losing streak that any system would suffer from, or has there been a more fundamental shift as the summer race season has moved into it's closing stages? Has the form data I base the picks on matured towards the tail end of the season such that the selection criteria is no longer valid?

I cannot, at this moment, tell one way or the other. To be honest, given the consistently poor performance over the past two weeks, I'm reluctant to find out, at least with real money. Unfortunately, this means that I'm very much in line to have a second losing month in a row as the losses I have incurred this month are too great for my terrible horse trading skills to recover.

I feel a holiday coming on.

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