Brainstorming Session

A difficult concept when there's only one of me. There's few things I miss about working for a company, but taking the opportunity to just throw ideas about is one of them. I always found the process informative and challenging

I had the opportunity to do so tonight as my broadband when down around 6:30pm. Long term readers may remember the issues I had last year. With the wild winds and rain we've had today (Friday) I thought 'here we go again'. It transpires that BT had technical issues that were affecting many users throughout Scotland and the North of England.

The connection has just come up again in the early hours of Saturday so I thought I'd get my thoughts down on paper as I am prone to forget them these days.

I mentioned at the start of the month that I had intended to attempt regular 'dobbing trebles' this month. I did start the process, nearly doubling my bank before I got sidetracked, changed my strategy and promptly lost what I'd gained so decided to call a temporary halt to it.

I was frustrated during that losing period, by the number of dobs attempts that missed out by a handful of ticks. As a way of catching those, I briefly mentioned an option in the chat room this afternoon but didn't have time to elaborate fully which I'll do so here...

Based on the assumption that the vast majority of successful dobs, or at least the ones I do, don't go on to win, the lay off position can be altered so that it isn't a full dob where one lays twice the back stake at half the odds. Instead, the idea is still to lay twice the stake but at not quite half the odds so that we still double or money if the lay is matched - as long as the nag doesn't win, in which case we win/lose nothing.

For example, back £10 @ 10.00 to give a profit of £90. Normally, we'd lay £20 @ 5.00 for a liability of £80 so that win or lose a greened up profit of £10 before commission is achieved. However, if we lay £20 @ 5.5 for a liability of £90, we still get £10 profit before commission as long as the horse doesn't win. If it does, it is effectively a scratched trade.

Of course, if the lay isn't matched, the original back stake is lost, but that's no different from the original dobbing strategy. At least with this method, because the drop in odds isn't quite as much, there's a better chance of being matched.

To calculate the lay odds at which you need to place your closing trade use the following formula...

LayOdds = 0.5 x (BackOdds - 1) + 1

Which can be simplified to...

LayOdds = 0.5 x (BackOdds +1)

The significance of this is that your lay odds are always 0.5 above half the back odds., ie. 0.5 above what they would normally be if doing a traditional dob.

From this you can see that this is significant in terms of the number of ticks required to trade out as the back odds drop. Plugging some numbers into that formula and you will see what a difference I mean.

With the example above the trade out position is 5.50, 5 ticks less than required for a traditional dob.

If we back at 4.00, the traditional lay position would be 2.00, but using this strategy, the get out is at 2.50. A ticksize difference of 25!

This is a staking technique I'll be employing in future dobbing attempts. Just watch me pick all the winners from now on. :)

You can further expand the idea. If you are confident that your proposed dob won't win, you could lay off your double stake 1 unit higher making it much easier for your lay bet to be matched but risking losing your stake if it wins. All up to individual taste.


PhilipH said...

Phew! I see what you mean Ali, and wish you a lot of dobbing-luck.

I was most annoyed yesterday evening when I tried logging on with my broadband account. Took up the phone to dial the 'help' line and heard the 'connectivity issue' recorded message. Gave up and shut down as it was not worth waiting around for. The list of affected phone lines published this morning was enormous. It even got a mention on R4 news at 8.30 a.m. The Edinburgh exchange has a lot to answer for.

Alistair said...

I didn't see it at all on the news Phil, which surprised me. Given that it affected so many people I would have thought it would've attracted more attention.

At least it didn't crash during the afternoon racing. All OK now though.