October 2010 Summary

For some reason, this month seems to have flown by, surprisingly so considering I've not been doing much pre-race trading, at least not this past fortnight.

I've been concentrating on the lay system as it seems to be the only thing that I am doing that is profitable. Despite a disappointing end to the month which saw 9 points walk out the door this weekend, finishing the month on 53.53 points is a cracking result. It continues to bode well for the future with a running total of 344.3 points since the start date on the 24th of May.

In that time, there has been one losing month - August - which lost the grand total of 8.79 points. Hardly a major disaster in the grand scheme of things.

Now that I've built up a decent amount of data, it is time to start looking at other areas in which returns can be improved. In particular, some racecourses consistently provide a poor performance where I have managed to lay more winners than other courses. A quick filtering out of the worst culprits would indicate a further improvement in profit of some 50%. Clearly there may be more to it than that, but that figure certainly indicates that further investigation is warranted.

The profit from the lays this month was not enough to save October from being yet another loser. Once again, I have the pre-race trading to thank for that. I continue to be frustrated by my failure to get to grips with this important area of trading. I could cite a number of issues such as the continuing problems with software or blame other traders with more money than me unpredictably shifting the markets. While there may be some truth in those, they'd just be excuses.

The bottom line is I'm simply not good enough. I cannot read the markets at all. My entry and exit points are persistently poorly timed and I am finding the whole process quite demoralising. Let's face it, it is hardly rocket science, yet the secret continually and frustratingly eludes me.

For that reason, I stopped pre-race trading mid-month and haven't gone back. I don't doubt that I will return to it sometime. When I'm sat at home all afternoon, it is hard to resist the siren's call. It's a good thing I've got other areas to minimise the damage it causes.

In the meantime, I shall be continuing with the laying and investigating other ways in which to skin the proverbial Betfair cat. As I have failed to master the art of pre-race trading this year, I have found myself drifting back to gambling albeit with an element of trading therein. At the moment, I certainly seem to be having more success with it. Let's see how it goes.

Thanks for reading.


PhilipH said...

Your search for the holy grail continues Ali. The lay area does seem to be on the right track and by honing it as you are doing things are looking good.

Whatever you do, don't try to work out a system for Blackjack! It just will not work. ;-)

Cheers, Phil

Alistair said...

The sacred quest is a never ending one Phil. Who knows where it will end up in the weeks and months to come? It's always interesting finding out though.

PhilipH said...

My broadband went down again a couple of days back; presume yours did too.

Today, it is WOLVERHAMPTON that is in deep outage of the broadband type!

What a problem BT is having of late.

Alistair said...

Yes Phil, I was hit again on Tuesday, or was it Wednesday? I can't remember now - senility is setting in quickly.

As usual with these things, I got calls from clients saying they had no access. I had had to contact their non-BT provider to confirm the issue. Apparently the saw over 4000 customers disconnected from their systems in ten minutes.

The problem is of course, if part of the BT backbone goes done, which seems to have been the issue this past week, it isn't only BT customers that are affected.

Hopefully they've sorted it once and for all.