Course Specialists for 2011-06-30

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

16:00 Hayd - Ezdeyaad

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-06-29

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

17:30 Catt - Eijaaz

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Tennis Hedging Strategy - So Much For That Idea!

I placed my opening positions and hedges on the women's quarter finals this morning prior to going to work. I've just logged on to find that the first two matches failed to hedge, costing me £21 each and the third was quickly heading that way so I've bombed out of that and scatched the bets in the forth match.

I don't think I'll bother with the men's quarters tomorrow. :(

Course Specialists for 2011-06-28

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

16:00 Brig - Penang Cinta
19:30 Sthl - Bookiesindex Boy
19:30 Sthl - Spic n Span
20:30 Sthl - Bold Diva
21:00 Sthl - Eastern Hills

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Tennis Hedging Strategy - Wimbledon 2011

I've been meaning to give my Tennis Hedging Strategy another bash for a long time, but always seemed too busy to try it.

For this championship, I've waited until the last sixteen to make things altogether more manageable. As the original article describes, this method relies on the natural volatility found in the tennis in-play markets. Simply open your position before the start of the matches and place a closing hedge using Betfair's 'keep' facility and walk away.

On this occasion, I'm risking a liability of £10 on each of the men's fourth round matches with the hedge designed to give me an all green profit of 20% after commission. All profit will be carried forward on to the next round until we reach the final at which point I may remove my original stake.

I haven't decided if I'm going to do the same with the women's forth round.

Course Specialists for 2011-06-27

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

15:30 Wolv - Grudge
17:30 Wolv - Pie Poudre
19:25 Muss - Wicked Wilma
20:40 Wind - Choral Festival

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-06-25

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

16:30:00 - Classic Punch


Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-06-24

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

20:40:00 - Lord Theo

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Goodbye Forum

I said goodbye to the forum this evening as it hasn't been used in the past six months and, if I was honest, didn't really take off the way that I had hoped. It's not that surprising as there are so many betting/trading forums out there it was difficult to offer anything new or different to what's already available, making it much harder to attract users.

This, coupled with my lack of time to spend on it, both using and promotion, meant that it just didn't get going. Nothing ventured, nothing gained as they say, but time to tidy up the blog and get rid of it.

Course Specialists - Coming Soon

I've been running a thread over at SoccerLotto which monitors runners that tend to run well at today's courses. I'm looking for these to win, though they can be used for in-running trading. So far, since the beginning of April, it's sitting at a little over 70 pts profit.

I'm not always around when my server makes these selections and consequently I cannot post them until after the event. I've decided to make these selections available to the wider public as a trial and I've configured my server to automatically publish them to this blog. My server does its thing at 10am, so if there isn't anything here by 10:30, then there's no selections for the day. Alternatively, it might mean that I've configured something incorrectly, in which case, head over to SoccerLotto.

I'm not guaranteeing that these selections will be available indefinitely and I may halt this at any time. I'll just see how it goes.

Expect to see something happening from 23rd June - assuming my server finds any picks that day.

More Than One Way To Skin A Cat

Ever since I started this lark after a failed gambling career I've always been amused by the notion that trading is not gambling. Absolute nonsense in my opinion, but it seems that some traders (good and bad, experienced and newbie) are convinced otherwise. Questioned on their gambling habits sparks an almost zealous denial and objections to the accusation. Trawl through the plethora of forums and blogs and you'll get the jist of what I mean.

Mind you, some gamblers (or non-traders if you will) can be equally vociferous in there position, especially when it comes to the subject of trading. Simply nip over to the Betfair forums for a taste of some of the hatred directed towards the 'parasitic' traders.

Me? I don't put myself in any camp as such. I'm a gambler, pure and simple but I employ ALL the techniques I can to make a profit. I leave positions open if I am confident of a successful outcome. I hedge out to secure a profit (or a loss) if I'm not. I don't make any fundamental distinction between the two. At the end of the day, I'm trying to make money on Betfair - as I presume we all are. Whether I trade out pre-event, take something in-play or let it run to its conclusion is all based on my assessment of the market, and it's potential outcome as well as stats, form and a host of other things. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

It's all gambling, irrespective of the methodology or any fancy name we want to hide it behind. Those who think otherwise are deluding themselves in my opinion.

When I was a 'conventional' gambler, I was a neither a loser or a winner. Over the long term I was more or less even (probably slightly less than more). This was more to do with very bad money management than poor selections. This changed when I tried 'trading' with a starting bank of £10. The discipline instilled by that process has now fed back into more 'traditional' methods.

I now find myself spending more time developing systems - something I really enjoyed in my past life. Indeed, I got more enjoyment from the number crunching than the actual betting. In particular, I'm attracted by the idea of automated systems so that, assuming they are profitable long term, can be left to get on with it while I do other things. I now have the long term goal of developing a portfolio of systems that can be, ultimately, automated. This is taking me longer than I'd like, simply because I'm not the World's greatest programmer.

I'm currently working on two systems - a lay system which I've mentioned on here before as well as a dutching system which is showing great promise, as you can see from the graph below.

I'm not going to go into any great detail regarding these systems. I merely present their graphs here to illustrate my point regarding a cat's skin.

The Lay System - This graph is based on a standard lay stake size of £100. The lay system has been on the go since 25th May 2010. I spent the first six months or so paper testing it before committing real cash. At the moment, I'm using £20 stakes. The ultimate aim is to build my bank up so that it can support stakes of at least £50, though ideally, £100 would be jolly nice - particulary if it continues to perform in the same way as it has done this past year.

The Dutch System - The performance of the dutching system has been so dramatic that I've recently committed real money to it. The graph represents some 35 days worth of dutching covering nearly 300 bets. To go from £0 to nearly £1000 using £10 stakes in such a short space of time is dramatic to say the least. If the performance follows the steady trend illustrated here then I'll be a very happy chappy. More so as scaling things up is a clear option and easily achievable in the Betfair markets.

I have a number of other system ideas waiting in the wings to be investigated including, but not limited to:
1. Hedging course specialists in-running.
2. In-running trading based on what I've seen in the dutching system currently under way.
3. Revisiting the tennis hedging strategy.
4. Dutching/hedging golf markets.

The list goes on and on.

Trading wise, I'm no longer getting involved in the pre-race horse markets. It just never clicked with me. I'm very much of the opinion that one should stick to what works. The lay system, dutching system and the football lay system I briefly mentioned in another post continue to slowly build the bank up as I look into other systems and opportunities as well as explore other markets to trade.

Building up a collection of systems or methodologies is the way for me to go. As long as they are all profitable long term, losing runs in one system will hopefully be covered by winning streaks in the others.

Anyway, there you have it. Trading is gambling, no question. Whether I make money 'trading' or 'punting' is of no concern to me. As long as it is profitable. We should all learn to use whatever tools and methodologies we can to get the skin off the cat.