Best Laid Plans?

Continuing my investigations into other markets, I find myself increasingly drawn to those with only two outcomes. As a result, darts is one of those sports I'm targeting along with limited over cricket, tennis and snooker. There are others, but I think that's enough to be getting on with.

With the PDC Players Championship currently being shown on ITV4 this weekend, I spent yesterday paper trading the matches while watching the action. Other than the odd game in the pub - a long time ago when I used to frequent such establishments - darts has never attracted me as a sport. Judging by what I witnessed on Friday, I've been missing out on some excellent entertainment.

My paper trading went well enough to encourage me to get involved for small stakes during the second round matches this afternoon and evening. Needless to say, I promptly lost on the first three games. A combination of me being greedy and the matches being so one-sided (the complete opposite of what I'd seen the previous round) which meant that the positions I took were always going to be difficult to get out of.

Having said that, in two of those losing matches I had the opportunity to green up for a reasonable ROI but I didn't. Greed set in.

After giving myself a wrap on the knuckles and adjusting my expectations somewhat, the remaining four matches I took part in all returned a profit. I'm still down on the tournament, but I'm quickly homing in on a strategy that I believe will be profitable long term as well as identifying those matches I should be leaving alone.

I confess, I'm finding myself enjoying these new avenues. Even though I'm essentially starting again from scratch, exploring new sports while learning their markets on Betfair, I am enthused about trading again. Something I had lost for quite a while when concentrating on the horse markets.

I'm still spending far too much time in front of a computer screen, but I think that is a necessary sacrifice while getting to grips with new markets. Hopefully, that will lessen over time....

Who am I kidding?

Correct Score Dutch 30th Nov-1st Dec

Just the two for this weekend...

Norwich v Crystal Palace - 1-2
Tottenham v Man Utd - 0-1

The above scores are my 'seed' scores. I'll dutch those and the other two where one goal is added to the home score and one added to the away score.

Performance is monitored in the forum at SoccerLotto.

Back Or Lay 29th Nov - 1st Dec

More of a European feel to the selections for this weekend. The usual story... I'm recording these as straight punts but you may want to consider trading the lay picks in-play especially in those matches that have a lot of liquidity.

WOLFSBURG
ROTHERHAM
SOUTHEND
REAL MADRD
B. MUNICH
INT MILAN
JUVENTUS

These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.

Back Or Lay 26th Nov

A profitable weekend so here's hoping Tuesday's single selection keeps it going...

LUTON

These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.

Back Or Lay 23rd-24th Nov

Another bunch for your consideration. Keep an eye out for lay-to-back trading opportunities, particularly in those matches with decent liquidity.

PRESTON
FLEETWOOD
OXFORD U.
ST MIRREN
STRANRAER
EASTLEIGH
LILLE
HAMBURG

These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.

Cricket Trading - Learning Something New

SA v Pakistan T20
Continuing my cricket journey, I managed to get on a decent early swing in the South Africa v Pakistan match yesterday which left me all green and comfortable for the rest of the match.

I laid SA at 1.29 (indicated in green) then sat back and watch as it climbed to my exit point at 1.86 (in blue). I left it at that as I couldn't make up my mind mid-match whether to get involved again.

The main purpose of this post, however is to make mention of the part of the graph circled in black. This frenzied activity happened when there was no play due to rain and the players were off the pitch.

Just into the 9th over of the 2nd innings the heavens opened and play was stopped. For a while the market sat at a little under 1.20 then some wild and not insignificant movements took place. The graph might give the impression that these moves were quick and sudden. Not so. That encircled part of the graph represents some 20-25 mins which saw a huge amount of trading.

I obviously saw it happening but was reluctant to get involved until I understood the reasons. I've rarely seen such trading in other sports when competitors are not on the field of battle.

With the rain coming down and only a quarter of the match remaining I presumed that it was probably due to the recalculation of the target score for Pakistan using the Duckworth Lewis formula. (Thanks to Mark Iverson for confirming my suspicions on Twitter).

The movements in the market were further influenced by the rain abating and, for a short time at least, the market feeling that there might be further play.

The Duckworth Lewis formula is, as I understand it, not available to the general public. Any trader who does possess that information could get on the right side of the market a little earlier than everyone else. Having said that, there was plenty of opportunity yesterday for those like me to jump on the bandwagon so it is clearly something one should look out for.

That sums up what is great about this trading malarky. There's always something new to learn. Tuck it away and keep for a rainy day - quite literally in this case.

Correct Score Dutch 23rd-25th Nov

May not have much access to the Internet this weekend so posting these early...

Everton v Liverpool - 1 - 1
Stoke v Sunderland - 1 - 1
Man City v Tottenham - 2 - 1
West Brom v Aston Villa - 1 - 1

The above scores are my 'seed' scores. I'll dutch those and the other two where one goal is added to the home score and one added to the away score.

Performance is monitored in the forum at SoccerLotto.

Back or Lay 16th Nov

Not much on the go this weekend due to the Internationals. I've got just the one for you on Sunday in the English Skybet League 1...

BRENTFORD

*** Update 16/11/2013 13:06 - Apologies. This match is on at 15:00 today. I do not know where I got the idea from that it was on tomorrow. ***

These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.

All Quite In BYL Land

It has been a very quite week this week with only a spot of cricket trading to keep me a wake - though I shouldn't have bothered have reduced my bank a little. All part of the learning curve.

On the football front, with it being an International weekend and consequently no EPL there's no correct score dutches. Back again for those next weekend. Even the Back or Lay selections are very quiet, though I do have one lined up for Sunday. Stay tuned for that.

Back Or Lay 9th Nov

The usual eclectic mix for the weekend selections. Remember, I'm recording these as straight bets which are showing a small profit for the season. However, keep an eye on the lay picks as they tend to provide excellent in-play trading opportunities. If doing so, you should ignore the ones from lower leagues as there tends to be very little liquidity available.

ABERDEEN
RANGERS
HAYES & Y.
PARIS ST-G
B M'NGLDBC
B. MUNICH

These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.

Correct Score Dutch Picks 9th-10th Nov

A dearth of selections for this weekend with just the one...

Sunderland v Man City - 1-0

(The eagle eyed among you may have noticed that this was 1-1 until 8:53 on Friday morning. A typo on my part. Sorry.)


The above scores are my 'seed' scores. I'll dutch those and the other two where one goal is added to the home score and one added to the away score.

Performance is monitored in the forum at SoccerLotto.

Cricket Trials Continue

Bangladesh v New Zealand T20
Bangladesh v New Zealand T20
Continuing with my cricketing exploits today with a foray into the world of T20.

When looking at the graph for New Zealand with two overs left in the match it is clear that there were loads of excellent trading opportunities to be had. Yet I only came away with 10p!

I'm not really sure how, other than lack of patience. Having come from faster trading markets such as pre-race horses I think it will take me a while to get used to the much greater timescales. The more I watch and get involved in these markets to small stakes, the quicker that confidence will come.

I was certainly out far too soon having laid New Zealand at the start of the second innings - in that first sub 1.10 dip in the graph. A lesson learned and I'll grit my teeth a little harder next time.

Back Or Lay 5th Nov

With the majority of attention focused on the Champion's League tonight, these Conference matches will not have much money available for in-play trading, assuming they go in-play in the first place.

HEDNESFORD
BROMLEY

These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.

Back Or Lay 1st - 3rd Nov

Another metropolitan selection for you this weekend.

PARIS ST-G
MAN. CITY
WBA
COVENTRY
ROCHDALE
NAPOLI
VERONA
KALMAR


These picks should be backed if you can get decimal odds of 2.00 or over.
They should be laid if their odds are at 1.90 or under.