Cricket Trading - Learning Something New

SA v Pakistan T20
Continuing my cricket journey, I managed to get on a decent early swing in the South Africa v Pakistan match yesterday which left me all green and comfortable for the rest of the match.

I laid SA at 1.29 (indicated in green) then sat back and watch as it climbed to my exit point at 1.86 (in blue). I left it at that as I couldn't make up my mind mid-match whether to get involved again.

The main purpose of this post, however is to make mention of the part of the graph circled in black. This frenzied activity happened when there was no play due to rain and the players were off the pitch.

Just into the 9th over of the 2nd innings the heavens opened and play was stopped. For a while the market sat at a little under 1.20 then some wild and not insignificant movements took place. The graph might give the impression that these moves were quick and sudden. Not so. That encircled part of the graph represents some 20-25 mins which saw a huge amount of trading.

I obviously saw it happening but was reluctant to get involved until I understood the reasons. I've rarely seen such trading in other sports when competitors are not on the field of battle.

With the rain coming down and only a quarter of the match remaining I presumed that it was probably due to the recalculation of the target score for Pakistan using the Duckworth Lewis formula. (Thanks to Mark Iverson for confirming my suspicions on Twitter).

The movements in the market were further influenced by the rain abating and, for a short time at least, the market feeling that there might be further play.

The Duckworth Lewis formula is, as I understand it, not available to the general public. Any trader who does possess that information could get on the right side of the market a little earlier than everyone else. Having said that, there was plenty of opportunity yesterday for those like me to jump on the bandwagon so it is clearly something one should look out for.

That sums up what is great about this trading malarky. There's always something new to learn. Tuck it away and keep for a rainy day - quite literally in this case.

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