Home Lay Value Picks - 28th-31st Aug 2015

Another unusually long list of selections to choose from. Only lay those home teams that are 1.90 or under just before kick off.

MAN. CITY v WATFORD
COVENTRY v SOUTHEND
OXFORD U. v YEOVIL
PLYMOUTH v NEWPORT
CELTIC v ST JOHNSTN
DUNFERMLNE v STRANRAER
ELGIN v STIRLING
WREXHAM v HALIFAX
SOLIHULL M v ALFRETON
STOCKPORT v STALYBRDGE
CHELMSFORD v ST ALBANS
OXFORD C. v WESTON SM
BARCELONA v MALAGA
REAL MADRD v REAL BETIS
AC MILAN v EMPOLI
COLOGNE v HAMBURG
DARMSTADT v HOFFENHEIM
EIBAR v ATHLTICO B
GETAFE v GRANADA
CHIEVO V. v LAZIO
ROMA v JUVENTUS
UDINESE v PALERMO
W. BREMEN v B M'NGLDBC
AIK STCKHM v ATVIDABERG
IFK GOTHEN v GEFLE

Lay Of The Day Hits 20pts Profit

Lay Of The Day
It's been a touch over two months and with today's lay of the day selection bringing home the goods, I'm delighted to say the trial has hit the 20pts profit mark.

Though not quite over, and at the risk of tempting fate, August has proved to be an excellent month. This is in stark contrast with July which suffered from a ten day spell where it was difficult to establish any momentum. On reflection, that was largely my fault as I tried to be clever and fine tune things after a good start to the trial. When I went back to keeping things simple, progress picked up again. Lesson learned.

I originally intended this to be a relatively short trial. However, encouraged by the performance this past month, I think it is sensible to continue with the exercise. This is especially true as we transition from flat racing to jumps racing over the coming month. The more data points I have, the greater the quality of that data.

So, look out for the selections continuing over on Twitter and you'll see a full list of selections and performance if you click on the image.

Home Lay Value Picks - 21st-24th Aug 2015

I don't recall ever having so many selections over a weekend. Hopefully this lot can do something about the poor start this has had this year...

H. BERLIN v W. BREMEN
LEICESTER v TOTTENHAM
MAN. UTD. v NEWCASTLE
WEST HAM v BOURNEMTH
BRIGHTON v BLACKBURN
MIDDLESBRO v BRISTOL C.
GILLINGHAM v WIGAN
SHEFF. UTD v BLACKPOOL
CAMBRIDGE v CRAWLEY
PORTSMOUTH v MORECAMBE
HEARTS v PARTICK
TRANMERE v BOREHAM WD
BASTIA v GUINGAMP
COLOGNE v WOLFSBURG
E FRANKFRT v AUGSBURG
SCHALKE v DARMSTADT
RANGERS v HIBERNIAN
SASSUOLO v NAPOLI
GIF SUNDSV v FALKENBERG

As usual. 1.90 is the maximum odds these should be laid at.

Home Lay Value Picks - 18th-20th Aug 2015

I'm afraid to say this year has got off to a shocking start. After a bit over two weeks, the selections are already 11pts down. Very disappointing. Still, there's another 50 weeks to go so no panic yet.

There's a few midweek selections this time around. The usual criteria applies; only lay these if they are 1.90 or less.

MILTON K. v BOLTON
COVENTRY v CREWE
HARTLEPOOL v NEWPORT
LEYTON O. v STEVENAGE
TRANMERE v HALIFAX
TAMWORTH v TELFORD
EBBSFLEET v WESTON SM
HEMEL H. v MAIDSTONE
OXFORD C. v BASINGSTKE
QUEEN OF S v LIVINGSTON

Home Lay Value Picks - 14th-17th Aug 2015

Plenty of selections again this weekend...

NOTTS COUNTY v MANSFIELD
CRYSTAL PALACE v ARSENAL
MAN. CITY v CHELSEA
WATFORD v WBA
CELTIC v INVERNESS CT
DUNFERMLINE v COWDENBEATH
ANNAN ATHLETIC v STIRLING
FOREST GREEN v BARROW
WOKING v ALTRINCHAM
CORBY v CHORLEY
NUNEATON v BRADFORD P
GIF SUNDSV v OREBRO SK
STABAEK v LILLESTROM

Lay the home team if you can get 1.90 or less.

Home Lay Value Picks - 11th-13th Aug 2015

A whole host of midweek matches taking place this week and I've only managed to find three; all of them in the Capital One Cup...

CARDIFF v AFC WIMBLEDON
SCUNTHORPE v BARNSLEY
SHEFFIELD WED v MANSFIELD

Lay the home favourite only if you can get 1.90 or less.

Home Lay Value Picks - 7th-9th Aug 2015

The domestic season gets fully under way this weekend and that is reflected in the number of selections available...

BURTON v SCUNTHORPE
BRISTOL ROVERS. v NORTHAMPTON
ABERDEEN v KILMARNOCK
DUNDEE v HEARTS
MOTHERWELL v DUNDEE UTD
QUEEN OF SOUTH v ALLOA
BERWICK RANGERS v MONTROSE
CONCORD R. v WESTON SM
ARSENAL v WEST HAM
BODO/GLIMT v START

Lay the home team if you can get 1.90 or less.

Home Lay Value Picks - 1st-2nd Aug 2015

The start of a new year and a new season and the Back Or Lay Picks have morphed into Home Lay Value Picks.

As alluded to in an earlier post, the Back element of the previous incarnation has proved somewhat inconsistent over the years so I've decided to drop it and concentrate on laying home teams that I think are too low in the odds. The same rules apply for this:

1. Only lay if you can get odds of 1.90 or lower
2. For the purposes of recording results, I'll be using the odds recorded at BetExplorer.
3. Recorded profit and losses are based on a 1pt liability with 5% commission deducted from profitable lays.
4. Picks will be given for weekend matches and again for any midweek games.
5. Selections will be posted on the blog though I'll announce their presence in Twitter.
6. Follow at your own risk

At some stage I might get around to posting a results spreadsheet online but for now, let's bash on with the selections:

CELTIC v ROSS CO.
AYR v BRECHIN
DUNFERMLINE v COWDENBEATH

The selection of Celtic is perhaps one to raise eyebrows, but the numbers are indicating it's a value lay so I've got to go with what the sums are telling me.